RECORDS // FORECAST RECORD
Scored Forecasts
Falsifiable claims, filed with content hashes and resolved against pre-registered criteria. Claim → status → criteria → resolution → verification.
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Brier Score
OPENAwaiting deadline
CORRECTResolved · criteria met
INCORRECTResolved · criteria not met
AMBIGUOUSUndecidable · logged
VOIDCriteria unmeasurable
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CALIBRATION // STATED VS OBSERVED
| Band | N | Stated avg | Hit rate |
|---|
VERIFICATION
Each forecast is hashed (SHA-256) at issue time.